Our Climate Crisis: Where We Are and What We Can Do

We are living through an unprecedented and truly breathtaking moment in the Earth’s history. On the one hand, we are in the midst of an undeniably great age in human history. Through technological innovation, medical innovation, the spread of democracy and the spread of education in the past few centuries, life has improved vastly for many people around the globe. These innovations have led to an increase in the human lifespan, improved medical care and reduced childhood death. We have also seen increased opportunities for education, increased gender equality, and increased concern for human rights, biological diversity, and nature. In the last 50 years alone, images of our planet from space and images of space itself has ushered in a new age for humanity, where many of us feel that we are now a planetary species – belonging to our planet Earth. And through developments in the last few decades alone, we now enjoy the conveniences of rapid communication through cell phones and the internet, and cheaper air travel which make the world more connected than ever before.

On the other hand, the human species’ explosive, exponential technological innovation has unwittingly unleashed multiple global problems. We have flung open the proverbial Pandora’s box and have released the plagues of overpopulation, the voracious and unsustainable consumption of our planet’s resources, the pollution and depletion of our arable land and fresh water supply, and elevated species extinction rates. Among the various environmental issues of our day, the issue that poses the greatest threat to humanity’s future is climate change.

Where We Are

Global warming is not a far-off, abstract scientific notion but a reality we are currently living in. Although the general public may be debating the existence of climate change, the consensus among 97% of climate scientists is that we are living through human-induced climate change. The surface of the Earth is warming as the blanket of greenhouse gases thicken in our atmosphere, trapping solar radiation from escape.

Climate change is on our shores faster and fiercer than expected. Month after month and year after year, temperature records are broken. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading international body of scientists charged by the United Nations (UN) to assess the data and risks of human-induced climate change, tells us that each of the last three decades has been successively warmer than any preceding decade in recent history.

A radical shift is upon us. In 2008, while employed as the leading climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, James Hansen published a paper stating that anything greater than 350 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is not compatible with civilization and the life forms that have adapted on our planet. In September 2017, we were at 403 ppm, and we are currently sending 2 ppm annually into the atmosphere. According to NASA, the annual average of global temperatures in 2016 was 0.99 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Scientists have sounded the alarm for decades, and the current data on climate change makes it clear that we are rapidly running out of time to avert disastrous outcomes. Two degrees Celsius is the maximum global temperature increase agreed upon by the international community at the Copenhagen Summit in 2009 to avert global disaster, but it is still considered too high by many scientists, including James Hansen who sees the critical threshold as one degree Celsius.

At our current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, scientist Michael Mann, a contributor to the IPCC report that won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, predicts that by 2036, the Earth will cross the dangerous two-degree threshold. That is just 19 years from today. Moreover, the World Bank’s report on climate change, Turn Down the Heat, indicates that “warming of close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times – up from 0.8°C today – is already locked into Earth’s atmospheric system by past and projected greenhouse gas emission.”

According to the World Bank’s report, at a 1.5-degree rise in global temperatures, we can expect a higher frequency in the occurrence of heat waves, similar to the heat waves that struck the US in 2012 and Russia in 2010. The Amazon rainforest will be at risk for large-scale degradation, coastal cities will be at risk for flooding, tropical storms will increase in frequency and magnitude, and droughts will intensify. This rise in temperatures will lead to water shortages, crop failures, and the mass migration of climate refugees.

Two Degrees

In his book Six Degrees, journalist, Mark Lynas, gathers the work of hundreds of scientists from around the world and synthesizes their data to offer images of what our planet will look like as it approaches a six-degree rise in global temperatures. He creates this tapestry using scientific data from complex computer models and paleoclimate studies.

According to Lynas, a two-degree rise in global temperatures will result in extreme heat waves throughout Europe every year. To give us a clearer image of what this would look like, he cites the example of the 2003 heatwave in Europe where an estimated 35,000 people died from heat-related illnesses. This same heat wave resulted in crop losses, which cost governments 12 billion dollars. Major rivers ran dry causing shortages for irrigation and hydroelectric production. Lynas states that at two degrees, summers will be warmer, and therefore, more destabilizing than 2003. Glacial melt rates will double, and if the Greenland ice sheet melts completely, which is possible at two degrees, cities such as Miami, Manhattan, London, Bombay, and Bangkok will eventually become inundated. Crippling droughts will strike California, Nebraska, and Texas threatening to transform the region into a dustbowl. Monsoons will increase in frequency and ferocity in South and Southeast Asia, leading to the mass migration of people.

Crossing the Threshold

If global temperatures rise beyond the maximum limit of two degrees Celsius established at Copenhagen, many forms of life on Earth will likely cease to exist, and our civilization will face greater turbulence. The climate has tipping points and these thresholds, if crossed, could lead to catastrophic outcomes because these forces could be unstoppable and irreversible, resulting in other feedback loops – the worst-case leading to a runaway scenario automatically increasing global temperatures degree after degree.

For example, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is being absorbed into the ocean, acidifying the ocean and inhibiting plankton growth. Plankton is the basis of the ocean’s food chain, and continued ocean acidification threatens the collapse of the ocean ecosystem. Phytoplankton blooms are also significant carbon sinks, absorbing half of the carbon dioxide we create.

Moreover, the Arctic ice acts a gigantic mirror reflecting the sun’s heat from the Earth, a phenomenon known as the albedo effect. As the planet warms, Arctic ice melts and shrinks, and the ocean absorbs the sun’s heat thereby accelerating the planet’s warming.

As the Arctic ice melts, methane stored under the tundra seeps out of the ground into the atmosphere. Methane release is problematic as methane gas is more efficient at trapping solar radiation and its impact on climate change, averaged over 100 years, is twenty to thirty times greater than carbon dioxide. These are a few examples of the known feedback loop effects anticipated beyond a two degree Celsius rise in global temperatures. Due to the complexity of the climate and the Earth’s ecology, as climate change progresses, this could generate more unpredicted feedback loops.

Five Degrees

In the IPCC report published in 2013, scientists projected that global temperatures could rise to 4.8 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. According to the climate projections in Mark Lynas’ Six Degrees, at five degrees, the planet becomes unrecognizable. No ice sheets remain on the Earth’s poles. All of the planet’s rainforests have disappeared. Rising sea levels have inundated the coasts far inland, completely altering the geography of our planet. Most of the globe suffers from either droughts or tremendous downpours. Inland temperatures rise ten degrees above current temperatures. The remaining habitable zones for humans shrink to the poles. These conditions will most certainly lead to global instability, civil war, and civilizational collapse.

Six Degrees

At six degrees, the planet becomes increasingly inhospitable to humans and most of the life forms that have evolved on Earth. The conditions at this temperature can be likened to the last time our planet faced extreme greenhouse conditions, between 144 and 65 million years ago during the Cretaceous period. The ferocity of the storms was nearly unimaginable, with enough force to carry them to the North Pole and back, effectively circumnavigating the globe. The oceans at this temperature may turn anoxic or deprived of oxygen, ensuring the collapse of most forms of ocean life. The human species will likely survive, but the vast majority of individuals will not. The planet’s remaining people will probably fight furiously for their existence, living lifestyles that will bear little resemblance to our own. The six-degree scenario is a grim future we could face if we stand by and allow it to unfold.

Where Hope Lives

In his Plan B books, environmental analyst and founder of the Earth Policy Institute, Lester Brown, presents an action plan that could cut carbon emissions by 80%. First, we can raise the energy efficiency of our buildings, lighting, appliances, industry, and transportation. Second, we must replace fossil fuels with renewable energy such as wind, solar, geothermal, hydroelectric, and tidal power. Third, we need to end deforestation and plant trees to sequester carbon. Lester Brown’s three-pronged plan involves practical solutions feasible for consumers and governments alike. What we need is enough individual and political will to see these solutions implemented.

Examining the word crisis lends insight into how our environmental crisis can catalyze a momentous shift for life on Earth. The Chinese ideogram for crisis is the conflation of the symbols danger and opportunity. This moment, the greatest existential crisis humanity has ever faced, also presents its greatest opportunity. We stand at the threshold of great change. We can no longer continue along our current trajectory because doing risks leading us onto the path of cataclysmic consequences.

Tremendous human progress has opened up Pandora’s box, yet just as in the Greek myth, hope remains despite our mounting global problems. The hope of future generations depends on our actions today. We are in a race of tipping points – between the dangers of climate change and the many opportunities that our current moment presents. The time has come for all of us to individually and collectively seize the opportunity to build a better world for all of humanity, life on Earth and future generations. We have the ingenuity to build a world where we can all flourish in partnership with nature. Through our action or inaction today, our future is created. Individual actions do matter, and, yes, we can make a difference.